A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data
Identifieur interne : 000D54 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D53; suivant : 000D55A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data
Auteurs : A. Fierro [Italie] ; A. Liccardo [Italie]Source :
- The European Physical Journal E [ 1292-8941 ] ; 2011-02-01.
Abstract
Abstract.: We construct a very simple epidemic model for influenza spreading in an age-class-distributed population, by coupling a lattice gas model for the population dynamics with a SIR stochastic model for susceptible, infected and removed/immune individuals. We use as a test case the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the novel influenza A(H1N1). The most valuable features of this model are its country-independent and virus-independent structure (few demographic, social and virological data are used to fix some parameters), its large statistic due to a very short run-time machine, and its easy generalizability to include mitigation strategies. In spite of its simplicity, the model presented reproduces the epidemiological Italian data, with sensible predictions for the reproduction number and theoretically interesting results for the generation time distribution.
Url:
DOI: 10.1140/epje/i2011-11011-2
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Application to the Italian epidemiological data</title><author><name sortKey="Fierro, A" sort="Fierro, A" uniqKey="Fierro A" first="A." last="Fierro">A. Fierro</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>CNR-SPIN, via Cinthia, 80126, Napoli</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Napoli</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”, via Cinthia, 80126, Napoli</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Napoli</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liccardo, A" sort="Liccardo, A" uniqKey="Liccardo A" first="A." last="Liccardo">A. 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E</title><idno type="ISSN">1292-8941</idno><idno type="eISSN">1292-895X</idno><imprint><publisher>Springer-Verlag</publisher><pubPlace>Berlin/Heidelberg</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2011-02-01">2011-02-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">34</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1">1</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="6">6</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1292-8941</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1292-8941</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract.: We construct a very simple epidemic model for influenza spreading in an age-class-distributed population, by coupling a lattice gas model for the population dynamics with a SIR stochastic model for susceptible, infected and removed/immune individuals. We use as a test case the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the novel influenza A(H1N1). The most valuable features of this model are its country-independent and virus-independent structure (few demographic, social and virological data are used to fix some parameters), its large statistic due to a very short run-time machine, and its easy generalizability to include mitigation strategies. In spite of its simplicity, the model presented reproduces the epidemiological Italian data, with sensible predictions for the reproduction number and theoretically interesting results for the generation time distribution.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Italie</li></country></list><tree><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Fierro, A" sort="Fierro, A" uniqKey="Fierro A" first="A." last="Fierro">A. Fierro</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Fierro, A" sort="Fierro, A" uniqKey="Fierro A" first="A." last="Fierro">A. Fierro</name><name sortKey="Fierro, A" sort="Fierro, A" uniqKey="Fierro A" first="A." last="Fierro">A. Fierro</name><name sortKey="Liccardo, A" sort="Liccardo, A" uniqKey="Liccardo A" first="A." last="Liccardo">A. Liccardo</name><name sortKey="Liccardo, A" sort="Liccardo, A" uniqKey="Liccardo A" first="A." last="Liccardo">A. Liccardo</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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